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WOODBRIDGE — The numbers used to project how many children will fill Prince William County classroom seats in the coming years are inaccurate.
The projections are supposed to align with the number of new planned housing developments. The inaccuracies come as the county is in talks to budget $143 million for new school buildings to get students out of classroom trailers which are commonly found throughout the school division.
Independent analysts said the school division over counted as many as 1,300 new students that would come to the schools from new housing developments across the county, resulting in a $360 million over budget projection. They charge the school division counted housing developments that ended up not being approved by county leaders or those whose developers chose not to move ahead with construction.
Dave Beavers, who works for the school division counted and said they identified an error of fewer than 400 students, “not $360 million of an issue.” He did not give an alternative amount to counter the $360 million figure.
Occoquan District Supervisor Ruth Anderson on Monday cast doubt on the accuracy of county schools projections at a meeting of the Joint County/School Capital Process Committee meeting at Prince William County Government – James J. McCoart Administration Building.
At an Oct. 2 Prince William County Board of Supervisors, Anderson said that her office discovered the inaccuracies and claimed that “the data that they are using from county development projects and feeding into their formulas have room for improvement regarding accurate projections that we use for our five-year budget and our 10-year budget.”
Gainesville District Supervisor Peter Candland at the meeting said Anderson was “a little too generous on the concern of those numbers.”
“When you go through that data- and I’ve just gone through the Gainesville district – I saw several projects that are basically off the books.”
The schools are still counting developments like Prince William Station in the Brentsville District – that was going to have 2,000 homes – in their projection data. “We need to get that data more accurate.” He said.
“This is the information that we use when we talk about rezoning applications, and we talk about land use issues. We come in, and we hold up that data as the Bible, and we can’t do this or we can do this based on what that information says,” Candland added.
Bob Weir, a former councilman on Haymarket town council and a former member of the Haymarket planning commission, also examined the data.
Bob Weir cited Dove’s Landing, a failed-to-launch housing development near Manassas that the county bought 22 years ago and is now slated for use as a public park. The schedule still showed 100 homes for the property, said Weir.
“It points to a level of incompetence or laziness or worse…” he added.
Weir said the school division failed to vet it, and the Board of Supervisors do not do a thorough review of the budget, so both are at fault. “The errors are of such magnitude and such differing types,” Weir said.
As for why the numbers are off, Beavers explained that there is a time lag because the revenue committee releases their projection in December and the schools release theirs in October, so they don’t quite mesh sometimes. He also explained that they take “cues” from the business community where development may occur to build their numbers.
He reiterated that, all told, the school system only identified 395 projected students that were presumed to be located in the “incorrect geographic location.”
Beavers said their effect is “negligible.”
Candland asked what determines when the schools take a community development out of the plan – even if it’s six to 10 years past.
“So you don’t do a three or four- year audit?” Candland said.
Beavers said the purpose of these projections were developed to assess future school facilities.
“I think this is what scares people,” Anderson said, about there being no explanation for the chart. She asked for a reason to be provided along with the chart.
Occoquan District School Board Member Lillie Jessie cited the region’s high concentration of military causing people moving out – and how projections can be off because this is a highly transient area.
Beavers said that they embrace any help in making their data better.
Anderson said Woodbridge High School is not currently overcapacity and the charts she’s looking at say there are, mysteriously, going to be another 600 students.
“We cannot find the developments” to produce these kinds of students, she said.
Beavers replied that we have to take in to account the element of progression. “They could be elementary school students already, and they’re going to progress over,” he said.
Jessie said someone from the planning office should be on the committee to help with communication. Woodbridge District School Board Member Loree Williams said she considers the plan more of a “living document.”
Anderson said errors that her staff had found in the data, such as duplicate developments such as Ray’s Regarde — a proposed housing development of 325 homes on Horner Road in Woodbridge that last week was kicked back to the Planning Commission for further review.
Anderson and Williams, who had a tense back and forth through a good portion of the night, exchanged words about the accuracy. Williams asked that if the numbers are inaccurate, does Anderson not think the school division’s overall capital improvement plan that outlines what new school facilities are needed in the next 10 years, is a valid document?
“It’s going to be,” Anderson replied.
The members of the joint committee agreed that better communication is needed between the school division and the county government. They continue working on a solution ahead of a joint meeting of the County Board of Supervisors and School Board meeting Nov. 27.
County officials urged committee members to reach a conclusion sooner than later and decide whether or not to fund the $143 million plan to get students out of trailers, in time for the funding to be included in the next five-year budget plan early next year.
