The Stafford County Board of Supervisors received a detailed data center revenue forecast at its regular meeting on April 21, 2026, showing potential net gains of tens of millions of dollars annually by the mid-2030s, while highlighting near-term uncertainties and board concerns about Amazon Web Services (AWS) incentives.
Chief Financial Officer Andrea Light presented the PFM model, which covers only the five approved campuses: Stafford Technology Campus on Eskimo Hill/Route 1, Old Potomac Church near the hospital, Centerport Gateway, Vantage, and Crane’s Corner. Developers have proposed 31 buildings totaling 8.7 million square feet across the sites. The baseline scenario assumes 20 buildings constructed over the 10-year horizon.
Projected gross revenues begin at $5.6 million in FY26 (including land reallocation for the Stafford Technology Campus) and $4.9 million in FY27, rising to $168.4 million by FY34 before a slight dip in FY35 due to business personal property depreciation. After AWS incentives, net revenue to the county is projected at approximately $24.5 million in FY28 — a 7.6 percent increase over the proposed FY27 property tax total — and $145.8 million in FY35, with $21.1 million returned via grants.
Light described the model as using a “conservative lens” with assumptions about construction timelines, property values, occupancy, and risks such as permitting delays or substation requirements. Delay scenarios show slower growth: a 6- to 12-month delay reduces FY28 gross revenue to $3.9 million (versus $33.3 million baseline), while longer delays push meaningful growth to FY30.
The AWS performance agreement, running until 2051, applies to Stafford Technology Campus, Old Potomac Church (two buildings), and Centerport Gateway and is user-based rather than strictly site-based. The first three campuses are modeled as 100 percent Amazon-occupied. Qualifying buildings remain at the $1.25 business personal property tax rate with reimbursement. Vantage and Crane’s Corner are independent of the agreement.
Board members expressed confusion over Amazon occupancy assumptions and the scale of development. Several referenced the 2022 Joint Commission, which had anticipated only five to six sites. Supervisor Crystal Vanuch described the current volume as a “bait and switch” compared to earlier projections and called for biannual updates to the revenue model for the board and the public.
Supervisors voiced concern about “almost zero upside” for residents on AWS-tied sites due to the long-term incentives. Vice Chairwoman Maya P. Guy questioned whether the agreement term to 2051 is an industry standard. Others asked about modeling tax-rate increases on non-AWS sites (to align with approaches in Prince William or Loudoun counties) and explicitly tying data center revenue to capital improvement plan needs, salaries, and the five-year financial plan.
County Administrator Bill Ashton and Light noted the “ebb and flow” of property tax revenue due to depreciation cycles and the need for future policy discussion on balancing capital investments against operational uses or tax relief. Ashton emphasized that the model is a “first crack” and will be refined as new information becomes available.
The presentation was part of the FY26 third-quarter financial review, which also showed overall property tax collections tracking 1 percent over budget, unfunded elderly/disabled tax relief rising to a projected $33.4 million (versus $28.1 million budgeted), and $8.8 million received from data center reuse water plus $1.3 million in PFAS settlements programmed into the FY27-36 CIP. General fund operating revenues are expected to exceed the budget by about 2 percent, with fund balance remaining stable.
The board took no immediate action on the forecast but directed continued monitoring and updates. The discussion preceded approval of zoning time-limit extensions for three industrial projects (including two data center-related applications), personal property tax rate adjustments (vehicle rate held at $5.72; other tangible/business personal property rising to $5.72), the FY27-32 Secondary System Six-Year Program, and land-use cases for a freestanding emergency room and Cardinal Forest retail CUP.
Public comment addressed data center concerns, short-term rental enforcement, jail food quality, traffic impacts, and other hyperlocal issues in districts including Griffith-Widewater, Hartwood, and Garrisonville.
The board’s special meeting on April 28 will address calendar-year 2026 real estate tax rates. Supervisors called for ongoing transparency as data center development proceeds and revenues potentially ramp up over the coming decade.
