Breaking News: New maps move incumbents out of seats; An explainer of an expected coming political shakeup

[Updated 7 p.m.] Voters and elected leaders in our region woke up today with a glimpse of a possible new political reality. 

According to new political maps drawn by court-appointed Special Masters, nearly all elected incumbents in Prince William and Stafford counties, Manassas, Manassas Park, and Fredericksburg cities were “re-districted” out of their seats Masters from the Democratic and Republican parties. The new maps, or similar versions of them, will likely be approved by the Virginia Supreme Court later this month. 

Congressional elections will take place in November 2022, while state-level office holders in the House of Delegates may need to run a special election next year to keep their seats.

District 7 shifts to Prince William, Stafford 

The new maps move Virginia’s 7th Congressional District, held by Democrat Abigail Spanberger, from the Richmond suburbs to Prince William and Stafford Counties (it closely resembles our Potomac Local News area coverage map). A single member of Congress will serve the two counties and three cities mentioned above for the first time. 

Under the current map, Prince William County, the second-largest jurisdiction in the state, is split between three members of congress.

Incumbents Gerry Connolly (D-11), who now has portions of Fairfax, Prince William counties in a district drawn in 2010, loses his portion of Prince William County on the new map, with District 11 now encompassing only Fairfax city and a part of Fairfax County. 

Rob Wittman (R) would see his District shifted south, losing his portion of Prince William and Stafford counties. 

Meanwhile, Jennifer Wexton (D), who holds the District 10 seat, loses Prince William County. She’ll keep Loudoun County in the newly proposed District that spans south to Charlottesville. 

Wexton said the proposed change would make it more difficult for her to win, making it more competitive for Republicans. Virginia’s 11 congressional seats are up for grabs in November 2022 for the Midterm Elections.

“Under this proposal — which has a very good chance of resembling the final map — my district would become ten points redder than in 2020,” penned Wexton in a fundraising email Thursday. 

Prince William County Brentsville District Supervisor Jeanine Lawson is one of five Republicans looking to unseat Wexton in what will likely be a June 2020 Primary Election. Lawson told PLN she’d stay the course. 

“My heart has always been in 10th, I’ve made a commitment to the voters and donors for the 10th, and I will see it through,” Lawson said. 

Congress members aren’t required to live in the District they serve. 

Manassas City Councilwoman Theresa Ellis said she’ll now run for the District 7 seat.

Based upon the proposed district maps, as I have always promised, I intend to run in the District where I reside, built my business, raised my children and am an elected Councilwoman. At this time, the proposed maps shifted our lines and I am moving my campaign into the 7th U.S. Congressional District.

Democrats eye District 7 seat

However, political insiders say the proposed changes will result in a host of candidates clamoring to mount a 2022 campaign for the shifted District 7 seat. This morning, Prince William County School Board Chairman Dr. Babur Lateef said he’s considering a run. 

Thank you to all the constituents from across Prince William County who have reached out this evening to encourage me to run for the new congressional seat. I have been proud to serve as the School Board Chair of this incredible community and deliver tangible results for our students, teachers, and families. 

I am going to explore my candidacy for the 7th Congressional District and put in my due diligence as I do with all major decisions in life. 

If I do run, it will be to continue my work advancing opportunities for all in our community. As a doctor, small business owner, and public education champion, I do believe I have unique perspectives that could help our region and our commonwealth in Congress. 

Lateef said he would make a final decision “shortly.” Earlier this year, the Democrat withdrew his bid for Virginia’s Lt. Governor position, which Winsome Sears will hold on January 15. She will become the first woman and first black person to have the job. 

Political insiders expect a host of other Democrats to make a bid for the congressional seat. We’ll post their announcements here.

I am humbled by the calls I’ve received encouraging me to run for Congress.

Our next representative needs to be able to deliver for our families, kids, and communities.

I am seriously considering a run in the new 7th District, and plan to make a decision in the coming weeks.

— Jeremy McPike (@JeremyMcPike) December 9, 2021

Compared to the existing district maps, the newly proposed District 7 seat in the House of Delegates District 2 seat on steroids. The current District 2 seat includes eastern Prince William County and northern Stafford County portions. Competitive overall, Prince William County Democrats have dominated the seat held by Delegate Candi King in recent years. 

Stafford County, however, is more reliable for Republicans., who say they’ll put up a fight in the newly proposed 7th District, said Virginia Republican Party Chairman Richard Anderson: 

The new 7th Congressional District is merely notional until approved by the Supreme Court of Virginia. Its final configuration will be one in which Republicans will fight and win against any and all odds.

This time last year, I vowed that Virginia Republicans would win all three statewide offices and flip the House of Delegates in a Republican clean sweep. We did precisely that and will do it again in the 7th and several other districts to give Virginia a Republican majority in our delegation to the U.S. House.

Back-to-back campaigns for House of Delegates members? 

The new maps also have implications for members and soon-to-be members of the Virginia House of Delegates. With so many political districts shifted under the newly proposed maps, some say Delegates, who just competed in the November 3 General Election, may have to mount a new campaign in 2022 to keep their seats. 

Under the proposal, mapmakers split Prince William County, Manassas, and Manassas Park across six House of Delegates Districts; all re-numbered 19 to 25. 

Mapmakers split Stafford County between three districts. District 23 includes the northern portion of the county and a portion of eastern Prince William County (resembling the current House District 2 seat). Proposed Districts 65 and 64 contain southern Stafford County, Fredericksburg city, and central Stafford County, respectively. 

On November 3, Republican Tara Durant flipped the current District 28 seat (south Stafford, Fredericksburg city) from Democrat Joshua Cole in a significant election. The candidates spent millions during the campaign, making it one of the most expensive races during the off-year election. 

State Senate Districts shift 

A newly-proposed map for the Virginia Senate shows the District 29 seat in Prince William County, held by Democrat Jeremy McPike, shifting slightly south to include a portion of Stafford County. 

Mapmakers shifted the District 36 seat held by Democrat Scott Surovell southeastern Fairfax to the western portion of the county, removing the parts of Prince William and Stafford counties included in the District since 2010.

Under the proposed maps, the District 30 seat, now held by Democrat Adam Ebbin of Alexandria, moves to western Prince William County. The District 33 seat held by Democrat Jennifer Boysko, parts of Loudoun and Fairfax counties, shifts to southeastern Fairfax and northern Woodbridge in Prince William County (replacing a portion of the current District 36 seat held by Surovell). 

The 27th District Senate Seat held by Republican Jill Vogel, which spans the area between Winchester and Fauquier County, will shift east to include the southern portion of Stafford County and Fredericksburg. 

Under the new proposal, the District 28 seat held by Richard Stuart of Westmoreland will shift to southern Fauquier County, Culpeper, and Orange. 

How we got here

In November, the Virginia Supreme Court stepped in to oversee the drawing of new maps. 

In November 2020, voters created a bi-partisan commission to redraw the state’s political districts. Commissioners abandoned their task this fall after months of infighting. 

The State Supreme Court will accept public comments on the new maps via email at [email protected]. 

State law requires political districts redrawn every 10 years to reflect population changes. The coronavirus delayed the new maps, which were due last year.