Tuesday’s announcement by U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder that a plot to kill the Saudi Arabian and Israeli Ambassadors to the United States had been stopped could mark a major victory for two Law Enforcement agencies that have significant ties to our area. The FBI and the Drug Enforcement Administration were credited with foiling the planned assassinations. The plot also involved plans to blow up the Saudi Arabian and Israeli embassies here and in Argentina.
Both the Attorney General and FBI Director Mueller pointed the finger at Iran, saying the special operations element of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, known as the Qods Force, was behind the plot.
Two Iranian men were named in the indictment. One of them, a dual Iranian-American national named Manssor Arbabsiar, had already been arrested on Sept. 29. The other is reportedly a member of the Qods Force and currently in Iran, beyond the reach of US Law Enforcement.
The details of the plot are strange. Basically, the Qods Force wanted the Mexican Drug Cartel known as Los Zetas to carry out the attacks in the U.S. While many analysts are surprised by this, the Qods Force and Iranian intelligence frequently use proxy forces to do their dirty work. Arbabsiar, who lived in Texas, is alleged to have approached someone he thought was a Los Zetas member. He offered him $1.5 million to carry out the plot, already paying $100,000 from Iranian bank accounts purportedly affiliated with the Qods Force. Turns out that the guy Arbabsiar thought was a member of Los Zetas was actually a DEA informant.
The quick-thinking informant realized he had a unique situation on his hands. He probably never thought he’d be dealing with the Qods Force while working on the Mexican drug cartels. The Iranians appeared so determined to carry out this plot that it does not seem to have occurred to them that Los Zetas, or any other Mexican cartel for that matter, would have been extremely reluctant to carry out an assassination against the Saudi Arabian Ambassador to the US. Why would they care to ally themselves with Iran when life is so much easier without having such a partner?
The Iranians probably think they are the best partner money can buy. In this case, they were wrong and fell victim to an old-fashioned counter-intelligence ploy known as the double-cross.
This happens when one side thinks it has convinced an operative of another organization to work for them, but that operative hasn’t really been “turned”. In this case, the Iranians appear not to have banked on running into a DEA informant who knew how to string them along.
Had this plot succeeded, the implications for the Middle East would have been mind-boggling. Iran and Saudi Arabia were rivals even before the 1979 revolution that swept the Shah from power.
The rivalry has just gotten worse over the years as Iran and Saudi Arabia vie to exert their influence throughout the Middle East. The rivalry is compounded by the fact that there are ethnic as well as religious differences between the two nations.
Iran has also been behind the killing of American soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan. Its friendship with the anti-US regime in Venezuela and its desire to deploy its navy off of the U.S. East Coast show that it wants to challenge our power any way it can.
Had the assassination against the Saudi Arabian Ambassador been successful, it would have brought into the open the long simmering tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia. And, because the killing would have occurred on US soil, it would have brought the U.S. directly into a heightened conflict with Iran.
Acts like these start wars. Thanks to the counter-intelligence efforts by the FBI and DEA, we may have averted one with Iran for the moment. Their agents can be proud of the training they receive at their facilities in Quantico. This time we know their hard work paid off.
Cedric Leighton lives in Lorton and is the Founder and President of Cedric Leighton Associates, a Washington area strategic risk and management consultancy.
