Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the 1st District from leaning Republican to a toss-up and the 2nd from a toss-up to leaning Democratic, Cardinal News reported.
Democrat Shannon Taylor is challenging Rob Wittman in the 1st, which includes the Richmond suburbs, Williamsburg, and Tidewater. Elaine Luria is challenging Jen Kiggans in the 2nd, in Hampton Roads. Tom Perriello is challenging John McGuire in the 5th, Charlottesville and Lynchburg, which Crystal Ball moved from likely Republican to leaning Republican.
A Washington Post and Schar School poll found Taylor at 50 percent and Wittman at 46 percent among likely voters, inside the margin of error. The same poll had McGuire at 51 percent and Perriello at 45 percent.
State Navigate put the early-vote shift toward Democrats at 6.5 points in the 1st, 5.9 in the 2nd, and 4.7 in the 5th, compared with last year. Cardinal News counted 255,025 early ballots this year against 264,810 at the same point a year ago, a 3.7 percent decline.
