MANASSAS, Va. – Northern Virginia could face more than 400 hours of power outages a year by 2030, according to a new report from the U.S. Department of Energy, raising alarms about the region’s ability to keep up with the explosive growth of artificial intelligence and data centers.
The report, released in July, highlights a significant imbalance: while demand from AI infrastructure and data centers is expected to surge by 50 gigawatts nationally, the U.S. is retiring 104 gigawatts of firm generation—like natural gas and coal plants—with only 22 gigawatts of firm replacement power planned. The gap puts pressure on the electric grid and raises the risk of prolonged outages across the country.
Nowhere is the crisis more acute than in the PJM Interconnection region, which includes much of Virginia. Under a scenario where older plants continue to close, PJM’s “Loss of Load Hours” could spike from 2.4 hours a year to 430 by the end of the decade. Northern Virginia, already home to the world’s largest data center market, is a major driver of that demand.
Julie Bolthouse, Director of Land Use for the Piedmont Environmental Council, said these problems are the result of private contracts—not a natural energy shortfall.
“We’re only in an energy crisis because our utilities and the data center industry have agreed to contracts without any state oversight,” Bolthouse said in a recent interview. “This is an artificial crisis.”
She noted that much of the new demand—estimated at 15 gigawatts in PJM South alone—is tied to data centers that haven’t been built yet. Delaying power delivery for those projects could help ease pressure on the grid, she said, but only if decisions are made soon.
“If they start to build those other buildings that aren’t started already, then they become vested,” Bolthouse said. “Then it becomes harder to push back their in-service dates.”
Bolthouse warned that utilities like Dominion Energy have continued to build out infrastructure at a rapid speed, with costs passed directly to ratepayers. She pointed to Ohio, where a utility temporarily halted new connections over reliability concerns, as an example of how Virginia might respond—through either a utility-imposed pause or government regulation.
The Department of Energy also framed the issue as a matter of national security, arguing that failure to meet AI infrastructure needs could allow adversaries to gain control of digital systems and norms. Bolthouse sees that framing as a justification to fast-track new fossil-fuel infrastructure, including backup diesel generators, pipelines, and gas plants.
“We now have over 9,000 diesel generators permitted in Virginia, mostly in Loudoun and Prince William counties,” she said. “If those start running during peak demand, that’s going to massively deteriorate our air quality.”
Rather than racing to build more, Bolthouse said Virginia should prioritize sustainable siting, efficiency standards, and upgraded transmission using renewable sources. She noted that the state already has 265 million square feet of approved data center space—much of it not yet built or powered.
“We need to stop putting these on top of our parks, schools, and neighborhoods,” she said. “And the industry needs to shift away from speed and scale being its top priorities.”
