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We’re bracing for more unsettled weather conditions as a frontal boundary hovers over the region throughout the week, according to the latest forecast from the National Weather Service.
The forecast indicates that multiple rounds of showers and storms are set to impact the area, with a series of cold fronts expected to sweep through on Wednesday and Thursday. These fronts will bring windy conditions that are likely to persist through the weekend.
In the near term, early morning convection has been observed moving across the area, mainly north of I-66/US-50, with heavier precipitation staying to the north. However, a few embedded thunderstorms are expected as this initial round of convection progresses.
Meteorologists anticipate a temporary lull in activity from late morning through early afternoon before additional showers and storms develop later in the evening. A stalled front is projected to slowly lift north through the area, reaching a point near the Maryland/Pennsylvania border by morning.
The current weather pattern fosters a cold air damming (CAD) effect over most areas today, resulting in low clouds and cooler temperatures. Areas north of US-50, where the CAD is expected to persist, may see highs ranging from the upper 40s to mid-50s. Conversely, regions to the south, particularly along the I-64 corridor, could experience temperatures climbing into the upper 60s to lower 70s as the wedge dissipates by late afternoon.
As the day progresses, a couple of thunderstorms are forecasted to move across the area, with some potentially becoming strong to severe. The greatest threat for severe weather is likely to be from elevated storms producing hail, particularly in areas where the CAD remains prevalent. Model soundings suggest the presence of significant instability and strong wind shear, increasing the potential for large hail of 1 to 2 inches.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the CAD area under a Marginal Risk for severe storms, with a Slight Risk expanded slightly eastward along/south of I-66 to the Fredericksburg area, extending west along US-48 up through western Maryland.
While the primary threat window for severe weather is expected to pass, a wet night is anticipated, with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms continuing to move across the area.
