STAFFORD — Amazon’s move to Crystal City will have far-reaching effects to the Northern Virginia metro area’s households. Even Stafford County, which is fairly removed from the D.C. corridor, should be considering how dynamics will change.
“Stafford should be thinking very proactively about the fact that we are a growing metropolitan area in the long-term,” Jeannette Chapman, deputy director and senior research associate for the Stephen S. Fuller Institute, told Potomac Local. “There are always going to be hard periods of adjustment as the region grows.”
The Stephen S. Fuller Institute has published several analyses on how the distribution of Amazon HQ2 workers will affect various regions in Northern Virginia.
Stafford leaders should consider questions such as “what role Stafford plays in this growing metro area” and “what kind of infrastructure and housing Stafford will need” to stay ahead, said Chapman.
The Stephen S. Fuller Institute estimates 0.8% of Amazon HQ2 workers would live in Stafford and Fredericksburg. That ends up being roughly 1,422 households “with a direct or indirect/induced job” from Amazon.
A direct job would be people working for HQ2, while indirect or induced jobs would arise to meet the need for an increased population. For example, new Amazon HQ2 workers will need household services and new schoolteachers to meet student increase. They would be buying more things locally, so additional retailers will be required. “Depending on the services, many of these secondary workers could be in Stafford,” Chapman noted.
However, those households will be spread out over sixteen years, which is “fewer than 70 households a year,” Chapman noted. “That probably will be hard to isolate from any other growth that is happening organically.”
Chapman believes it is less likely that Amazon workers will live in Stafford. They will probably locate in Arlington for the most part.
“The vast majority of people who live in Stafford tend to work between Fairfax and Spotsylvania,” she said. “Unless there’s a shift in the infrastructure or transportation base, it will probably be less likely that Amazon’s workforce will be out in Stafford.”
That does not mean the region will go unaffected though.
“The question to consider is what kind of market power will Amazon have, relative to other workers,” Chapman noted. “It’s probably going to be stronger because the wage distribution is on the higher end.”
The Stephen S. Fuller Institute speculates that average Amazon HQ2 wages will be $150,000.
Transportation experts are trying to get a head start on the shifting commuting dynamics. Many workers in Prince William County alone are imported from Stafford and Fredericksburg.
OmniRide is currently considering adding two lines in North Stafford with direct service to the Pentagon and L’Enfant Plaza.
“If 1,500 new people work at Amazon and a third of the land in Prince William County, for example, that’s 500 new cars on the road unless we do better with transit,” Bob Schneider, executive director of OmniRide, told Potomac Local.
Schneider said that Amazon has “a really good relationship with transit” and a good track record of providing workforce data to transportation agencies ahead of major shifts.
Although Amazon is a Crystal City/Pentagon/DC corridor based job, it will still provide a variety from being a private sector job as opposed to federal. “The district has transitioned,” said Schneider. “It’s had a blended economy over the past 20 years, but we’re getting more and more of it.”
“The secondary effects of Amazon will be wider spread and more beneficial,” Chapman said. Northern Virginia — including Stafford — doesn’t “retain workers well, which is particularly true since the Recession.” Amazon could change that.
Federal jobs are plentiful, but it can prove challenging for workers who want to branch out into other areas of work, prompting them to leave. “Having Amazon here might make it more attractive for workers to stay,” said Chapman.
