The panel, moderated by University of Mary Washington political science professor Dr. Stephen Farnsworth, focused on the sweeping changes being proposed by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), a federal initiative aiming to root out waste, fraud, and abuse in government spending.
Federal cuts coming
Rob Hartwell, a former Capitol Hill chief of staff and now president of Hartwell Capital Consulting, warned that Prince William County’s reliance on federal jobs and contracts makes it vulnerable.
“There’s never been a complete overhaul of federal agencies in 50 years,” said Hartwell. “Now, the pendulum is swinging hard, and we’re seeing real disruption.”
According to Hartwell, Virginia is home to more than 235,000 federal employees — about 5.5% of the state’s workforce — and Prince William County alone has about 23,000, with some estimates placing that number even higher.
Public support for reform is strong, he said, citing polls showing over 60% of Americans back DOGE’s mission. But Hartwell cautioned that such popularity comes with costs. “We may lose 10% of our federal workforce here,” he said, adding that layoffs are already happening in the defense contracting industry.
Hartwell also presented examples of what he called “wasteful spending,” including $12 million for Las Vegas pickleball courts and $4.6 million for international drag shows. “It’s spending like this that makes the public fed up,” he said.
Economic outlook: gloomy
Dr. Keith Walters, director of the Stephen S. Fuller Institute at George Mason University, delivered a stark economic forecast. “I’m here to provide some doom and gloom,” Walters said, only half-joking.
Northern Virginia’s economy has underperformed the national average since 2011, Walters said, largely due to overreliance on federal procurement. He warned that layoffs in the federal and contracting sectors would likely bleed into retail, hospitality, and other industries.
Walters estimated that 1.5% of Prince William residents — those with federal jobs — could lose employment as the DOGE cuts take effect. “That’s your neighbors,” he said.
He added that the local housing crunch is compounding the region’s challenges. “There are just 552 homes for sale in Prince William County. If you’re running a business, you can’t hire people if they have nowhere to live,” Walters said.
Solutions and opportunity
Despite the dire outlook, both speakers offered solutions. Hartwell called on county leaders to diversify the economy by investing in tourism, technology, and workforce development. He also pitched ideas to revitalize Route 1 into a military technology corridor and transform Route 28 into a high-tech hub.
Meanwhile, Walters said Prince William County is doing better than some neighboring jurisdictions when it comes to housing construction. “You’re building more than most, and you’re helping the region — that’s part of why your traffic is so bad,” he said, sparking a round of chuckles.
The evening wrapped with a reminder of the stakes involved.
“We’re going to pay the price here in Prince William County,” Hartwell warned, “for the excesses of some inside the federal bureaucracy who threw our money away.”
The Prince William Committee of 100 is a non-partisan educational forum dedicated to studying essential interests, problems, and goals of the people of Prince William County and the Cities of Manassas and Manassas Park. The committee brings together diverse leaders from business, civic, and government communities to explore issues and foster common understanding. Membership is open to individuals living or working in the Prince William area engaged in civic, business, cultural, humanitarian, or similar activities.
The Committee generally offers programs on the third Thursday of every month except for June, July, August, and December. Forums typically feature panels of experts discussing current issues of importance to the community.
The Committee of 100 will continue hosting public forums on key regional issues throughout the year.
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