The National Weather Service has issued a severe thunderstorm warning for Stafford County, including Aquia Harbour and King George, effective until 3:15 p.m. today. This warning comes as a series of storm clusters, currently over Johnstown, PA, and extending across Lake Erie, are expected to intensify as they approach the region.
As of 9:45 a.m., satellite and radar imagery showed several clusters of showers accompanied by occasional lightning moving southeastward.
Meteorologists are monitoring these storm clusters to determine whether they will maintain their strength and become severe as they encounter increasing instability during the day. The potential for severe weather arises as these systems interact with a corridor of weak convergence, noted from western Maryland southeastward towards Fredericksburg. This area is expected to strengthen with additional waves of activity pivoting around an upper-level low to the north.
Despite some limiting factors such as poor mid-level lapse rates and modest atmospheric forcing, scattered convection with a few strong to severe thunderstorms is possible this afternoon and early evening. The primary concern with these storms is the risk of localized damaging wind gusts, with a conditional low-end threat for severe hail if supercell structures develop.
The National Weather Service also notes that following today’s storms, temperatures will likely dip into the mid-60s to lower 70s overnight, with potential for development, particularly in areas that receive rainfall.
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